BY FERAI TINC

HURRIYET- American military commanders have started to tell how critical the situation is in Kirkuk. There will be a census next month in Kirkuk due to the presidential elections set for January. Kurdish administrations in northern Iraq are giving money to Kurds and moving them to Kirkuk so it will be considered a 'Kurdish city.' US commanders can't hide their confusion over this Kurdish migration. Do you know why it took so long for them to see the truth?

When the Turkmen issue came up years before the war in Iraq, the US thought that it was an artificial issue raised by Turkey in order to gain advantage in Iraq. A proper Turkmen policy was never formulated. However, now even 1st US Infantry Division Commander Maj. Gen. John Batiste talks about a risk of civil war. If the US commanders say one day that they had been 'misled' by Kurds in the Tal Afar incident, I wouldn't be surprised.

Trying to tip Kirkuk's ethnic balance will trigger a more problematic process. A civil war in this region wouldn't look like one in the Balkans because everybody knows that cruelty spread beyond Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition, Turkmen have been the political opposition in the region for 90 years, with armed experience. The Kurds also have great experience with armed combat. Arabs are also very important in the most important army in the region.

Turkey's criticisms have caused distress in Washington. It's calculating how far Ankara will go. Some people in the US try to break Turkey's stance. However, the important thing is not how far Ankara can go, but calculating what will happen if the Iraqi swamp isn't drained. Establishing stability in Iraq is very important for Turkey. It's as important as protecting the rights of Turkmen, Arabs and Assyrians. However, the US lost its sensitivity to these balances. A Kirkuk confession would be the clearest evidence of this situation.